Presentation Title: | EVE and the challenge of anticipating changing patterns of precipitation |
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Full Name: | Bjorn Stevens |
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Affiliation / Institution: | Max Planck Institute for Meteorology |
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Abstract: | Water, and its availability has influenced the rise and fall of civilizations, the migration of peoples and the dispersion of nations. However, predicting where water will go, and how its shifts will feedback on circulations changing with warming is the big question mark of climate change. Climate models, as we know them, have proven uninformative of how the rains will change. Given that they weren’t designed to represent the overwhelming majority of rain-bearing systems — actually they were designed to conceal them — this should be no surprise. And while our existing models have helped us understand some basic facts about how water relates to warming, there is hardly a place on Earth where we are confident about which facts matter where, and for whom and to what degree. The Earth Virtualization Engine initiative presents the best chance of shedding light on these important questions. By tapping the power of exa-scale computing to simulate rain bearing systems explicitly, and physically, as part of the overall climate system, and by linking such simulations through AI to water’s impacts on humans and ecosystems, EVE offers an oasis of information where the world’s people can gather to gain insights into how water will change its ways with warming. |